Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. They composes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
